Mapping the Global Future

Today I had the unique opportunity to attend a lunchean that Ambassador Robert Hutchings was the guest speaker. Ambassador Hutchings the Former Chairman, US National Intelligence Council (2003-2005) and currently a Diplomat-in-Residence, Princeton University. He discussed the "Mappingthe Global Future" Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project.



"Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project is the third unclassified report prepared by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in recent years that takes a long-term view of the future. It offers a fresh look at how key global trends might develop over the next decade and a half to influence world events. Mindful that there are many possible "futures," our report offers a range of possibilities and potential discontinuities, as a way of opening our minds to developments we might otherwise miss." -Ambassador Robert Hutchings

As the U.S. Intelligence Community’s center for mid-term and long-term strategic thinking, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) has for 25 years been responsible for producing forward-looking intelligence estimates for senior national policy makers. Over the past several years, the NIC also produced three successive unclassified reports on Global Trends, most recently in December 2004 with the 2020 Project.

As its then-chairman, Ambassador Robert Hutchings, wrote, “linear analysis will get you a much-changed caterpillar, but it won’t get you a butterfly. For that you need a leap of imagination. We hope this…will help us make that leap…not to predict the world of 2020…but to better prepare for the challenges that may lie ahead.”

Given the rapid changes in a globalizing world, projecting into the future and planning for effective policy are critical – and increasingly difficult. What role can the intelligence community play in planning for an uncertain future? How can such a process be an effective guide for policy?

"Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project is the third unclassified report prepared by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in recent years that takes a long-term view of the future. It offers a fresh look at how key global trends might develop over the next decade and a half to influence world events. Mindful that there are many possible "futures," our report offers a range of possibilities and potential discontinuities, as a way of opening our minds to developments we might otherwise miss." -Ambassador Robert Hutchings

Here are some ofthe highlights:

The 2020 Global Landscape

Relative Certainty
Globalization largely irreversible, likely to become less Westernized.
Key Uncertainty
Whether globalization will pull in lagging economies; degree to which Asian countries set new “rules of the game.”

Relative Certainty
World economy substantially larger.
Key Uncertainty
Extent of gaps between “haves” and “have-nots”; backsliding by fragile democracies; managing or containing financial crises.

Relative Certainty
Increasing number of global firms facilitate spread of new technologies.
Key Uncertainty
Extent to which connectivity challenges governments.

Relative Certainty
Rise of Asia and advent of possible new economic middle-weights.
Key Uncertainty
Whether rise of China/India occurs smoothly.

Relative Certainty
Aging populations in established powers.
Key Uncertainty
Ability of EU and Japan to adapt work forces, welfare systems, and integrate migrant populations; whether EU becomes a superpower.

Relative Certainty
Energy supplies “in the ground” sufficient to meet global demand.
Key Uncertainty
Political instability in producer countries; supply disruptions.

Relative Certainty
Growing power of nonstate actors.
Key Uncertainty
Willingness and ability of states and international institutions to accommodate these actors.

Relative Certainty
Political Islam remains a potent force.
Key Uncertainty
Impact of religiosity on unity of states and potential for conflict; growth of jihadist ideology.

Relative Certainty
Improved WMD capabilities of some states.
Key Uncertainty
More or fewer nuclear powers; ability of terrorists to acquire biological, chemical, radiological, or nuclear weapons.

Relative Certainty
Arc of instability spanning Middle East, Asia, Africa.
Key Uncertainty
Precipitating events leading to overthrow of regimes.

Relative Certainty
Great power conflict escalating into total war unlikely.
Key Uncertainty
Ability to manage flashpoints and competition for resources.

Relative Certainty
Environmental and ethical issues even more to the fore.
Key Uncertainty
Extent to which new technologies create or resolve ethical dilemmas.

Relative Certainty
US will remain single most powerful actor economically, technologically, militarily.
Key Uncertainty
Whether other countries will more openly challenge Washington; whether US loses Science&Technology edge.

The report is fascinating to say the least. If you would like to read the entire report as well as a slew of other reports of this nature click on the link above.

Please do be aware that you will be linking to this via the CIA website so if you got anything you don't wan't the CIA to know about then maybe you shouldn't go here. ;-)